Increasing global temperatures are affecting livelihoods across the planet and the effects are projected to increase relative to warming average temperatures. One prediction calls for average global temperatures to rise by 0.5° C by 2030. While this number may seem insignificant, after considering that average temperatures have only increased by 0.6° over the past century it is in fact staggering.[1] The rate of warming is also increasing rapidly; the 1980's and 1990's had the hottest global temperatures recorded in over 400 years.[2] The effects of warming temperatures are numerous and are predicted to negatively effect vulnerable people the most dramatically. Rising sea levels, increased probability and intensity of droughts and heat waves, the spread of disease, and other increasingly erratic weather events are just a few of the effects of warming global temperatures. A shift in monsoon intensity and regularity is a specific result of climate change that has already devastated agricultural production in India and South Asia in general.
A monsoon is a seasonal land and ocean wind that blows from the southwest, bringing rain in summer, and from the northeast in winter. The summer monsoon brings moisture from the sea as the land heats and draws in air from the ocean, resulting in mass rainfall. The southwesterly monsoon winds appear first in Sri Lanka at the end of May and then at the foot of the Himalayas in July. Monsoon moisture flow comes from the ocean to land. In the summer the land warms more rapidly than the ocean creating a pressure gradient that draws air masses from the ocean to the land. As a result, moist air is brought in, eventually forming a large-scale monsoon system.[3]
India- a “monsoon economy”
The monsoon rains are heavily relied upon for agricultural production, and India is often referred to as the “monsoon economy”. While the monsoon rainfall can have devastating consequences for human life and livelihood,[4] 60% of farmland in India relies on the monsoon rains, and 60% of India’s population relies on farming as their sole source of income.[5] The monsoon rains replenish the rivers that India and other South Asian countries rely on for irrigation, and even more importantly the monsoon rainfall floods the farmland and provides the rainfall it needs to thrive. The 2009 Indian monsoon, described as “monsoon failure”, produced only 93% of typical rainfall. Despite a mere 7% difference, agricultural scientists from the Indian Agricultural Research Institute studied the negative impacts of the 2009 monsoon, and the effects that projected rainfall of future monsoons will have on agricultural production in India. They determined that India’s agriculture sector has grown less than 2% since 1999, and that this resulted in increased farmer poverty.[6] Noah Diffenbaugh, the director of the Purdue Climate Change Research Center states that, “almost half of the world’s population lives in areas affected by these monsoons, and even slight deviations from the normal monsoon pattern can have great impact”[7]. He also notes “agricultural production, water availability and hydroelectric power generation could be substantially affected by delayed monsoon onset and reduced surface runoff.”[8]
Climate change and its impact on the South Asian summer monsoon
As a result of heightened emissions of CO2 and chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s), an increase in atmospheric temperature has already caused fluctuations in India’s yearly monsoon. In its Third Assessment Report the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that “it is likely that the warming associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will cause an increase in Asian summer monsoon variability and changes in monsoon strength.”[9] The changes are projected to have an increasingly negative effect on India’s agricultural sector and the Indian economy as a whole. Although monsoon patterns have been considered unstable for the past couple of decades, it was after the 2009 Indian summer monsoon that these changes caused heightened international concern. Similarly, it was only recently that a relationship was determined between monsoon shifts and climate change.
In 2009 India experienced its driest June in over 80 years. The national meteorological department had predicted a normal monsoon, but when it did not rain until the middle of June, panic ensued.[10] From June to mid-July total rainfall was 27% below normal. Water levels in reservoirs were filled about half as much as previous years.[11] The Indian Meteorological Department reports that 2009 experienced the third lowest rainfall since 1901. As more research is done on the 2009 Indian monsoon and findings become available it is becoming increasingly evident that future monsoons are going to be similarly erratic and rainfall deficient. In an attempt to reduce the loss of agricultural production that occurred in 2009, the India Meteorological Department is advising farmers who rely on the monsoon rains to use short and medium duration seeds in order to adapt to the seemingly shortened monsoon season.[12]
A Purdue University study found that climate change will continue to influence monsoon dynamics and cause less summer precipitation, a delay in the start of monsoon season and a longer gap between precipitation periods.[13] While there is consensus that the arrival of the South Asian monsoon is becoming irregular across regions of India and South Asia, models disagree on whether overall precipitation will increase or decrease. The Purdue University researchers attribute this to the “complex topography” of India. Moetasim Ashfaq, the lead author of the study says:
South Asia is a unique region with very complex topography. It ranges from 0 meters elevation from sea level in the south to more than 5,500 meters from sea level in the north… so in terms of topography playing a role in climate and weather, this region of the world [India] is where we expect to see a large impact. Global models like the ones featured in the IPCC reports can resolve large-scale interactions but have difficulty capturing some of the more subtle atmospheric processes.[14]
While it confirms that the monsoon will shift, the Purdue University report acknowledges that global monsoon variances do exist. They note that increasing temperatures strengthen some aspects of large-scale monsoon circulation but weaken the fine-scale interactions of the land with the moisture in the atmosphere, which is what they attribute India’s projected reduction in precipitation to.[15]
The Purdue University research team used a high-resolution climate model that is believed to be the most accurate re-creation of India’s monsoon climate. The main findings of the model projected a delay in the start of monsoon season from five to fifteen days by the end of the 21st century and an overall weakening of the summer monsoon precipitation reaching South Asia.[16] The study emphasizes that it is the local scale processes that are the most relevant to their findings. The model shows a decrease in convective precipitation, which dramatically impacts the potential effect of the summer monsoon rains. Moetasim Ashfaq of Purdue University goes on to say that it is not just a question of whether monsoon circulation is stronger or weaker; even with a strong monsoon system if circulation changes where and when rain is delivered, unpredicted events could occur.
On especially hot days, the Purdue University research team observed circulation changes that decreased moisture flow over the land. This resulted in longer periods without rain as well as warmer conditions. Specifically the model shows an eastward shift in monsoon circulation, which means more rainfall over the Indian Ocean, Bangladesh and Myanmar, and less over India, Nepal and Pakistan.[17] So while some countries are projected to see their annual precipitation levels rise, India will unfortunately see a decline.
Another study by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography shows how an abrupt climate change event over 14,000 years ago caused a shift in monsoon patterns and as a result, a decline in vegetation growth. The event involved the southward shift of the summer monsoon and produced more rainfall on the Earth’s oceans while depriving tropical land regions. The findings from the study are based on comparisons between oxygen isotopes that were captured in ice cores, which show evidence of abrupt climate warming as well as previously published data from ancient stalagmites found in caves.[18] The research found that “beginning about 14,700 years ago, the mixture of oxygen isotopes began to change in a way that suggests less vegetation growth, and this process continued for at least 200 years.” This was compared to an earlier study that determined the amount of rainfall that fell in China over many centuries by examining stalagmites in caves. The conclusion was that this period of low vegetation growth directly corresponded with a period of severely reduced monsoon rainfall.[19] The study suggests that if the same pattern occurs in the future as global temperatures continue to warm, the highly-populated regions of the world that are dependent on monsoons, specifically South Asia, will face an increase in wildfires, water shortages and lower agricultural productivity.[20]
The shifting monsoon as a threat to human security
Agricultural scientists are becoming increasingly concerned about the plight of Indian farmers, especially those who rely on agricultural production as their sole means of sustenance. Considering that over 60% of jobs in India are in the agriculture sector and less than one third of cropland is irrigated, India is especially vulnerable to significant changes in weather. Agriculture in India is often produced at a subsistence level without modern technology and as a result the Indian economy will continue to be dramatically impacted by monsoon variability.[21]
Despite high economic growth rates, India’s agriculture sector has grown only 2% in the past decade. The deficient rainfall has caused sugar cane, oilseed and cotton production to suffer.[22] The decline has already threatened the food, water and economic security of millions of Indian people. Food insecurity is a concern because as temperatures warm and the monsoon season becomes increasingly erratic crop production will undoubtedly decline. This will result in the loss of income for millions of farmers and create an inability for affected farmers to feed themselves and their families. When productivity declines and farmer’s profits decrease, farmers become unable to pay off their seed and fertilizer loans as well as pay their rent. Food supply is another aspect of food security that will become threatened as a result of a monsoon shift. While India currently has sufficient food reserves, as crop production is reduced additional shortages will occur. This is not to say that hunger does not exist in India; in fact, India is home to about 25% of the worlds hungry.[23] While the country produces more than enough food for its population, the high rate of hunger is due to unequal distribution. Between 1990 and 2007 grain yields in India grew at an average rate of 1.2% per year, whereas population grew at an annual rate of 1.9%.[24] Clearly these growth rates are unsustainable and combined with the projected decline of agricultural production due to climate change, food insecurity will be exacerbated.
Farmers who use irrigation systems and are not completely dependent on the monsoon are also concerned about what the future holds. Water levels in dams are becoming depleted at an increasing rate, and farmers are concerned that their sources of irrigation may be threatened.[25] In addition to rural farmers, those in urban areas are also affected by water and power shortages due to declining water levels in reservoirs that act as both a water supply and a source of hydroelectricity.[26]
The Indian economy is also going to suffer on a national level. “If production suffers, the [low] income effect will bring down rural demand… this in turn will affect industrial production” says Anjan Roy, an adviser for Economic Affairs at the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.[27] This would undoubtedly influence the inflation rate, which in India is determined largely by the price of food-related items. Prices are rising steadily in India and Roy goes on to say “if the Reserve Bank of India resorts to tightening the monetary policy, the industrial sector, which is already under duress, will be badly hit.”[28]
Efforts to mitigate the effects of global warming on the monsoon
While there is little that can be done to curb the increasing uncertainty of the Indian monsoon, there are some measures being taken to lessen the negative impacts. In an attempt to mitigate the current and future climate issues, the National Food Security Act (NFSA) was recently proposed by the Indian government. The act calls for 25kg of food grains (wheat and rice) to be provided by the government per family per month.[29] This is far below what a typical Indian family of five requires and it does not address the nutrition concerns that give India the highest rate of malnourished women and children in the world. Not only will the proposed NFSA not provide families with sufficient food or nutrition, but also if food production continues to decline India may not actually produce enough food for the NFSA to fulfill its mandate.In efforts to forecast the Indian monsoon, the United States has developed an expansive “cooperation in weather and crop forecasting” partnership with India that will provide a more accurate tool to predict monsoons. The partnership, formally called the agreement on “Technical Cooperation for Study of Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall” will include a model that has the ability to provide forecasts two weeks in advance.[30] The model is called a coupled forecasting system and it combines both oceanography and atmospherical science, whereas the current Indian model relies solely oceanography and is therefore significantly less accurate.[31] Both Indian and American scientists are in agreement that this model will adapt well to Indian climate circumstances. The model will be used on an experimental basis in the summer of 2011.
On his recent visit to New Delhi, President Obama had this to say about the American partnership project, “Together we’re going to improve Indian weather forecasting systems before the next monsoon season. We aim to help millions of Indian farming households save water and increase productivity... and enhance climate and crop forecasting to avoid losses that cripple communities and drive up food prices.”[32] The Indian government has committed RS 24 million ($531,000 USD) over a five-year time frame and the US, $100,000 USD, to finance a “Monsoon Desk” at the National Centre for Environmental Prediction that will serve as a host for the projects research.[33]
In addition to their collaboration with the United States government, the central government of India has implemented a National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS) to help minimize farmer’s losses from drought (and other) related crop failures. The insurance scheme is mandatory for all farmers who take out loans from a nationalized bank, and voluntary for those who don’t take out loans. It covers food crops (cereals, millets and pulses), oilseeds, sugarcane, cotton and potato. Depending on the crop, the farmer pays a premium rate, ranging from 1.5% to 3.5% of the sum insured.[34] The beneficial outcomes expected from the scheme are numerous. The scheme will allow for improvements in the area of cropproduction by providing financial support to the farmers in the event of a crop failure. Additionally, it will encourage farmers to adopt progressive farming practices and more advanced technologies and will help maintain the flow of agricultural credit. It will also have a spillover effect in the sense that it will benefit employees who may have otherwise been out of work.[35] The scheme will be implemented on a pilot basis in 50 districts starting in 2011.[36]In an effort to mitigate the negative effects of the truant monsoons Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has ensured that ministries are monitoring the situation closely.[37] State governments are preparing contingency plans including distributing drought-resistant seeds, advising farmers how to grow crops that require less water, and even implementing cloud seeding that is designed to encourage rainfall.[38] Agricultural scientists are also hoping that the 2009 monsoon failure will encourage the Indian government to establish agricultural reforms and to improve management of the country’s water resources. The agricultural scientists want to see a tax regime that favors the agricultural sector, as well as a cutback on the electricity subsidies that they believe encourages overuse of electrical power and ground water.[39]
As the South Asian monsoon season becomes more uncertain, so does the future of farmers reliant on rainfall for crop production. The threat to food supply, income levels and job security will undoubtedly become an increasing concern for India’s economy and the well-being of the country’s people. Despite promising efforts to mitigate the negative impacts of the monsoon variance, life will undoubtedly become more difficult for Indian people as the monsoon season becomes increasingly erratic.
[2]Global Warming Fast Facts (National Geographic News, 2007)
[3] Elizabeth K. Garner, “Purdue study projects weakened monsoon season in South
Asia”, (Purdue University News, 2009)
Asia”, (Purdue University News, 2009)
[4] Rainer Zahn, “Global change: Monsoon linkages”, (Nature: International weekly
journal of science, 2003)
journal of science, 2003)
[6] Ibid
[7] Elizabeth K. Garner, “Study projects weakened monsoon season in South Asia”,
(Physorg Journal, 2009)
(Physorg Journal, 2009)
[8] Ibid
[12] “Monsoon delayed, India’s crop yield likely to fall”, (Thaindian News, 2009)
[13] Elizabeth K. Garner, “Purdue study projects weakened monsoon season in South
Asia”, (Purdue University News, 2009)
Asia”, (Purdue University News, 2009)
[14] Elizabeth K. Garner, “Purdue study projects weakened monsoon season in South
Asia”, (Purdue University News, 2009)
Asia”, (Purdue University News, 2009)
[15] Ibid
[16] Ibid
[17] Elizabeth K. Garner, “Purdue study projects weakened monsoon season in South Asia”, (Purdue University News, 2009)
[18] Dana W. Cruikshank, “Global Warming Can Impact Monsoons and Lower Crop
Production”, (INSciences Organisation, 2009)
Production”, (INSciences Organisation, 2009)
[19] Ibid
[20] Dana W. Cruikshank, “Global Warming Can Impact Monsoons and Lower Crop
Production”, (INSciences Organisation, 2009)
Production”, (INSciences Organisation, 2009)
[24] “India Food Security, a OneWorld briefing”, (OneWorld, 2010)
[28] Ibid
[29] Sachin Kumar Jain, “India’s National Food Security Act: Entitlement of Hunger”,
(Ethics in Action, 2010)
(Ethics in Action, 2010)
[32] “President Obama’s Address to Joint Session of Indian Parliament”, (The
Whitehouse, Office of the Press Secretary, 2010)
Whitehouse, Office of the Press Secretary, 2010)
[34] “National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS)”, (Directorate of Economics
and Statistics- Government of Karnataka, 2010)
and Statistics- Government of Karnataka, 2010)
[35] “National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS)”, (Directorate of Economics and
Statistics- Government of Karnataka, 2010)
Statistics- Government of Karnataka, 2010)
[36] “Cabinet approves to modify National Agricultural Insurance Scheme”,
(International Business Times, 2010)
(International Business Times, 2010)
[37] Ibid
[38] Ibid
[39] Madhur Singh, “Why India Is Worried About It’s Truant Monsoon”, (TIME Magazine, 2009)
Wow, what an insightful piece of work! My knowledge on this topic has just increased ten-fold. So interesting to hear about the active role that the US is taking on this issue.
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